The Cowboys have been playing better football as of late, winning three of their last four games and looking genuinely elite on the defensive side of the ball. However, they haven’t exactly been facing the cream of the crop.
On Sunday night, they’ll be playing against the 8-6 Buccaneers, who are in the driver’s seat for the NFC South race but need to keep their foot on the gas. Unsurprisingly, the Cowboys are underdogs in this one, but our writers aren’t unanimous in their view of how things will go.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers
When Tampa Bay has the ball
Gap discipline
We all know about the Cowboys pass rush, and it is playing at a very high level right now, but that’s distracted everyone from the fact that this run defense is still not great. The Buccaneers aren’t the most run-heavy team out there, currently sitting 14th in total rushing attempts, but they are one of the most efficient.
The Buccaneers are eighth in EPA/rush, tied with the 49ers, and their 5.2 yards per carry is second only to the Ravens. The duo of Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving has been electric, as both are capable of running inside and outside the tackles in Liam Coen’s diverse run game. Dallas still struggles against the run – they’ve “improved” to 30th in EPA/rush over the last six weeks – and they’ll need a big showing in this one to limit the Buccaneers offense.
When Dallas has the ball
Avoid third down
Head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles aims to get teams in third and long situations. He has a diverse set of blitz packages that he unleashes on quarterbacks in third and long. Tampa Bay leads the league in third down blitz rate and is only giving up 5.4 yards per pass attempt on third down.
Compare that to the Cowboys, who come into this game ranked 23rd in EPA/dropback on third down. Coincidentally, they’re also 23rd in third down conversion rate. If the Cowboys hope to have any success against this Buccaneers defense, they need to emphasize moving the chains on first and second down, thereby preventing Bowles from digging into his bag of tricks.
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